The new National Climate Assessment report is bound to get
lots of press attention, although whether it will have any impact on the Flat
Earthers is doubtful.
Transportation isn’t a leading topic of the report, but does
get a chapter (available
here), put together by a team led by Henry Schwartz
and Mike Meyer.
The report has four “key messages” for transportation:
Key Message 1: Reliability and Capacity at Risk – “The
impacts from sea level rise and storm surge, extreme weather events, higher
temperatures and heat waves, precipitation changes, Arctic warming, and other
climatic conditions are affecting the reliability and capacity of the U.S.
transportation system in many ways.”
Key Message 2: Coastal Impacts – “Sea level rise, coupled
with storm surge, will continue to increase the risk of major coastal impacts
on transportation infrastructure, including both temporary and permanent
flooding of airports, ports and harbors, roads, rail lines, tunnels, and
bridges.”
Key Message 3: Weather Disruptions – “Extreme weather events
currently disrupt transportation networks in all areas of the country;
projections indicate that such disruptions will increase.”
Key Message 4: Costs and Adaptation Options – “Climate
change impacts will increase the total costs to the nation’s transportation
systems and their users, but these impacts can be reduced through rerouting,
mode change, and a wide range of adaptive actions.”
Most of this is pretty straightforward.
Messages I would add:
Added Message 1: Redundancy and connectivity is really
important. The report notes that a
“network” approach to infrastructure is good, but this subject needs a higher
profile. Simply filling in missing
street grid and prohibiting future cul-de-sacs not only helps in emergency
situations but also mitigates congestion and greenhouse gas emissions on an
everyday basis.
Added Message 2: We need better planning.
Although the report says this too, I
think it needs more emphasis. For example, one example provided of possible
climate change impacts is the vulnerability of Mobile, Alabama to
flooding.
Interestingly, the last
Alabama long-range transportation plan (admittedly due to be updated) outlines
hurricane evacuation routes, but doesn’t mention climate change.
Some long-range plans do a good job of
at least attempting to grapple with climate change (see my comments on Maryland
DOT’s plan
here), but many don’t.
Added Message 3: Prepare for the consequences of
electrifying the transportation system.
The report talks about changes in fuels, but the writers probably didn’t
want to get into a fight about natural gas, hydrogen, etc. To me, it is pretty evident that pretty
much the whole transportation system is going to need to be electrified, which
will have all sorts of effects on adaptation.
Added Message 4: Remember there are other changes going
on. The report quotes old sources
to warn about increasing VMT and freight movements. In fact, VMT has flattened out, demographic changes are
affecting travel habits, and at least some manufacturing is being reshored.
Added Message 5: We need to cope with the uncomfortable prospect
that climate change adaptation will cause new conflicts between transportation
agencies and environmental agencies.
Engineers who design “all-weather” roads to serve as evacuation/emergency
routes will likely look at more bridges, higher bridges, elevated causeways,
and more impervious surfaces – all anathema to current environmental policies
and regulations.
Added Message 6: We need to think more about walkable/bikeable,
resilient neighborhoods and towns, with “islanded” electric grids and local
goods and services. When roads are
closed, the main grid is down, and long-range travel is perilous, walking to a
corner store with solar power will look like a pretty good option.
So let’s hope the National Climate Assessment – and the
President’s sales pitch – is effective in moving the nation toward better
climate policies. And let’s expand
the next Assessment to grapple with some of the issues I suggested.
