Having recently spent a few days meeting with several
thousand of my friends and colleagues in transportation (otherwise known as the
Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board), I wanted to share a few
nuggets of information I picked up.
There is a lot of discussion these days in climate change
circles about the benefits of “green taxes” (e.g., carbon taxes) for promoting
desired behaviors while raising funds for governmental activities. And of course in transportation circles
there is always talk about the need for more money. So it is not surprising that people in
the overlap of those circles are looking into green taxes for transportation.
So, you might ask, what percentage of the American public
would support, for instance, a 10-cent increase in the gas tax, with the
revenue “dedicated to transportation projects to reduce global warning”? The answer is 54 percent.
This question is part of an ongoing survey research project
which folks at the Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University
have been carrying out for seven years.
(The report can be found here.)
Despite the noise you hear about Americans hating taxes, the
research shows that a majority of Americans support gas tax increases
when they are dedicated to transportation goals. The gas tax option gaining the highest support – 78 percent
– is for a 10-cent increase with revenue “spent on projects to maintain
streets, roads, and highways.” And
support for gas tax increases has been generally trending up during the
seven years for most of the options presented!
A follow-up piece of research (to be published) dug into the data collected over all seven
years of survey data to inquire whether there are any demographic
characteristics associated with support for green taxes (the “dedicated to
global warning” and two related ones).
The specific research question was whether support for green taxes was
related more to “place” (urban vs. rural) or “people” – other identifiers. The short answer is “people.” The results showed that “it may not
matter as much where you live as who you are. No matter where you live, you are likely to support
transportation taxes if you are younger, female, Hispanic, and identify as a
Democrat.”
And one more research update on taxes from TRB: California
has had a remarkable history of successful local sales tax referendums for
transportation. These Local Option
Sales Taxes (LOSTs!) now generate $4 Billion a year for transportation. In the 40 years since this phenomenon
got started, approval rates have been well over 50 percent. And under the rules, a two-thirds
supermajority is required for adoption!
Thanks to grad students at UCLA we now have a much better understanding
of how these things work (to be published). The main takeaways (my interpretation):
·
People will support taxing themselves for
transportation when the objectives are clear (and popular),
·
Approval rates go up over time when the local
jurisdiction (counties in California) delivers on the previous program,
·
As a matter of practical politics, the mix of
projects in successful referendums is tailored to meet local needs (and
aspirations), and of course geographical balance,
·
People are willing to invest much more in
transit, even in places where current transit usage is small,
·
Bus transit tends to be a drag on the likelihood
of success relative to fixed-guideway, and
·
“Maintenance” is a much better draw than
“operations.”
Bottom line: There is a broad reservoir of potential public
support for “green” taxes that benefit clean transportation.