Long-range planning for climate change is a work in progress
in the transportation community.
Everyone (well, maybe that’s a slight exaggeration) knows it needs to be
done but the theory and practice are still in a very formative state. A current “best practice” that planners
should look at is the Future Forces report published by the Delaware Valley
Regional Planning Commission as part of their long-range planning effort. The Future Forces report (short version
here, long version here) identifies five forces that seem likely to shape the
future. (I have had the
opportunity to be part of this effort.
Some general comments here.)
One of these forces is Severe Climate.
The “What-If” Scenario for Severe Climate in the greater
Philadelphia region takes us to what things might look like in 2045. There are lots of problems worldwide:
flooding, extreme weather events, droughts, food shortages, infrastructure
failure. However, things are not
actually so bad in Philly:
“Relative to other areas, Greater Philadelphia has become a more
desirable place to live due to less risk of sea level rise and continued water
availability.” In fact, a
population increase is predicted due to “climate change-driven
immigration.” I think this is a
critical point. The DVRPC planners
recognize that the ill effects of climate change are not going to be evenly
distributed. There will be lots of
regional variation. How we plan as
a nation should be complemented by how we plan as regions.
This doesn’t mean that Philadelphia gets a free pass. Problems in 2045 will likely include
flooding threats to Philadelphia International Airport, port facilities, the
Northeast Corridor rail line, and highways. Higher river levels may reduce effective bridge clearances
and restrict ship traffic.
Infrastructure maintenance and repair costs will increase. And current projections suggest that
things really start to turn ugly after
2045.
The report identifies “top regional actions” that are
recommended to prepare for the effects of each of the Future Forces. For Severe Climate adaptation
(mitigation is also included in this section), the recommended actions include:
·
Identify vulnerable community and transportation
assets and take steps to minimize risk,
·
Improve emergency preparedness,
·
Make improvements to wetlands and build levees
as needed to prepare for flooding, and
·
Update building codes.
In addition to scenario-specific actions, the plan
identifies “universal actions” – actions that are “beneficial to the region
regardless of which forces come into play in the future.” This is the approach that is sometimes
called “no regrets” planning. Among
these universal actions is improving resiliency:
“Create and implement regional infrastructure resiliency
plans. Increase funding for
projects that reduce vulnerability, and enhance flexibility and resiliency of
infrastructure to the effects of climate change. Accommodate relocation of critical assets where possible and
harden them where it is not.”
DVRPC deserves congratulations for tackling long-range
climate change planning aggressively and skillfully. We all have a lot to learn in this department, and the
Future Forces effort helps our education.
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